A Future for Ukrainian Refugees in Europe Beyond Temporary Protection
The future of Ukrainian refugees in Europe remains uncertain after the “Temporary Protection” measure adopted by the member states is no longer applicable. A European follow-up arrangement is necessary, which preserves Ukrainian’s freedom of movement and treats them like EU citizens. This would involve continued access to employment, housing, and education – vital for stability. After a year and a half, surprising settlement patterns have emerged, emphasizing the importance of freedom of choice and civil society networking.
So what is going to happen to the four million Ukrainians, who will have lived in European countries for years, after the temporary protection? What about their kids, who go to school and speak the language of their countries of residence? What about people from cities devastated by the Russians?
“Temporary Protection” was conceived and implemented to avoid turmoil and disruptions, particularly the collapse of asylum systems, if millions of displaced people were to suddenly arrive at the borders. Without European cooperation, all these risks could resurface, including possible uncoordinated mass movements, due to critical capacity issues in larger countries.
The activation of “Temporary Protection” for the Ukrainian refugees is a European achievement. Civil society welcomed them spontaneously, efficiently networking digitally, and cooperating with cities, states and international agencies. The EU Ministers’ decision to implement the temporary protection directive kept the EU open, and allowed the refugees to move freely within the continent and choose their refuge. Thus, the refugees enjoyed the freedoms of the European Union that are fundamental for its functioning. Temporarily, they became quasi-citizens of the EU, along with its Swiss, Norwegian and Icelandic partners. The very size, openness and diversity of Europe were instrumental in facilitating their accommodation. Unlike other refugees who often remain confined to specific locations and camps, Ukrainians had the freedom to continue their journey to various destinations, including Portugal, Ireland and even Iceland, without a visa.
A European Follow-Up Arrangement
Any follow-up regulation should preserve these freedoms of movement, settlement and economic activity, and treat Ukrainians like EU citizens. This could be achieved through a treaty with Ukraine, granting both European and Ukrainian citizens free movement and equal economic rights following the models previously established. Such an arrangement would empower Ukrainian refugees to freely decide whether to go back or stay, aligned with their personal ambitions and opportunities. The promotion of freedom of movement and settlement encourages rational decision-making, while bureaucratic hurdles may lead to counterproductive outcomes, such as individuals staying in the EU out of fear they could not return. Giving rights to Ukrainians in Europe could also serve as a step towards EU membership, even if full membership was not possible as fast as desired.
Work Gives Refugees Control Over Their Lives
The smoother refugees find work, housing and quality education for their children the better. The majority of Ukrainians are now working in Europe, particularly in the countries with the highest intake of Ukrainians, 3.2 percent per capita in the Czech Republic and 2.6 percent in Estonia. Employment stabilizes their situation, gives the refugees dignity and control over their lives, aligns them with the local population, eases tensions and fears, and contributes to financial stability in times of inflation.
The Polish planning agency expects more in taxes paid by Ukrainians in 2023 than Poland spends on Ukrainian children’s education and allowances. In contrast, Germany frustratingly foresees spending billions on refugees in 2023 from the Middle East but also Ukraine. Streamlining work permits for Ukrainians is essential for Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Italy to catch up with the likes of Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic or Estonia, but also Denmark, the Netherlands or Britain. It took a year for Austria to remove the requirement to get a special work permit, similarly to Switzerland, which allowed apprenticeships for Ukrainian refugees only after a year.
All host countries, however, underutilize Ukrainian refugees’ skills and qualifications. Six percent of Ukrainian refugees have healthcare qualifications and thirteen percent have educational backgrounds, both in high demand in most European countries. Many Ukrainian women are engineers, to the astonishment of Western Europeans. EU rights would also help to access restricted academic positions, and thus make better use of Ukrainian refugees’ qualifications.
Civil Society and Refugee Networking
The refugees continue to actively exchange information, guiding their choices of specific countries and locations. This freedom has created stability and a welcoming European continent, avoiding toxic and bitter conflicts that result in barriers. Unlike asylum, this form of settlement relies on pragmatic cooperation instead of bureaucratic struggles and litigation. It also highlights the power of civil society in the age of the internet, when allowed to act freely.
Dietrich Thränhardt is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Münster in Germany. He has published extensively on German and European immigration and integration policies, and he is the author of several comparative studies on immigration in Europe, Canada and the US.
Sources and further reading:
–Decisions granting temporary protection by citizenship, age and sex, monthly data, Statistics | Eurostat (europa.eu)
–Thränhardt, Dietrich 2023: With open arms – the cooperative reception of Ukrainian war refugees in Europe. An alternative to the asylum regime? Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.
