Emigration: The Still Under-Explored Face of Mobility
The analysis of migration in Western countries has long focused on arrival – or immigration – which undeniably represents a challenge for host societies in terms of planning, integration and social cohesion. However, as a common phenomenon with considerable impact, the departure – or emigration – of migrants also deserves our attention.
Until the present, departures from a country have raised only moderate interest. They are by far less documented by existing statistical surveys than arrivals. The causes of return migration of migrant populations are less known than those of arrival. However, a departure is a meaningful event, not only for the migrant but also for the host society. It can reflect a failure of the migration project and in the host country’s ability to integrate the migrant into the labor market and society. It can also mean the achievement of personal objectives, possibly already set at the time of immigration.
For employers in host societies, the return or onward mobility of migrant populations can cause a loss of skills and an increase of costs, for example, when someone else has to be recruited to replace the person leaving the country. In some professions, the replacement of a highly qualified employee amounts to several hundred thousand francs of extra costs in recruitment and training, which comes at a significant financial cost, especially for small and medium-sized companies. In addition, when the phenomenon of emigration is massive and concerns people with high skills, it leads to brain drain. These elements explain why, in a context marked by increased competition among economies to attract the most qualified personnel, Western societies are gradually taking an interest in the phenomenon of return or onward emigration.
The Swiss Case: Variation in Departure Behaviour
We matched different statistics to monitor cohorts of migrants over time and to understand their departure behavior (see for instance the indicator « How many migrants leave Switzerland over Time »). Our findings show a wide variety of behaviour depending on nationality: while over 80% of Chinese, Japanese or Americans who arrived in Switzerland in 1998 have meanwhile left the country, this applies to less than 10% for nationals of the former Yugoslavia (mainly Serbs, Kosovars, Croats and Macedonians) and Sri Lankans.
The decision to leave Switzerland is thus not only influenced by specific characteristics of the Swiss context, but also by the economic and political situation in the country of origin. Many individual factors further influence this choice, such as the level and kind of education that plays a role in the ability to access the labour market in a foreign country, the family situation and the level of social integration in Switzerland.
How to Interpret These Results?
An interpretation of these results with data from the 2018 Migration-Mobility Survey enables us to carry out a more in-depth analysis. When asked about their plans regarding the length of stay in Switzerland at the time of arrival, only 23% of respondents expected to stay for their entire lives, 21% for a limited period and more than half of them (56%) did not know. At the time of the survey on the other hand, 42% of the migrants expected to stay in Switzerland for the duration of their lives, while 16% only wanted to stay for a limited period. The remaining 41% were yet to decide.
Interestingly, between the time of arrival (which occurred 12 years preceding the survey) and 2018, the proportion of respondents who intended to stay in Switzerland for the rest of their lives increased by 19%, while the proportion of those expressing an intention to leave decreased. The first years in Switzerland therefore allow the migrant to form a more precise idea of the future of their migration project and the trends highlighted show a growing attachment to the host country.
Call for Further Research into Emigration
Overall, our analysis based on a combination of existing statistical data sets and the Migration-Mobility survey found a remarkably high degree of onward or return mobility among migrants in Switzerland. However, research and public debate mostly focus on immigration while departures from Switzerland have been going widely unnoticed. Yet, many immigrants to Switzerland become emigrants again at some point.
A more detailed analysis reveals that the departure behavior of migrants is not uniform but depends on a variety of characteristics such as nationality, education, family situation and length of stay in Switzerland. Considering the high occurrence of emigration, its significance for individual migration projects and the considerable effects it may cause for the Swiss economy, further research to reach a more nuanced understanding of this phenomenon would be advisable.
Philippe Wanner is a professor for Demography at the University of Geneva and is the Deputy Director of the nccr – on the move and leads the project Explaining and Interpreting Migration Flows and Stocks.
