The Ukrainian Exodus Forces Europe to React
On 24 February 2022 we woke up in a new world. Ukraine has since had to face a war of aggression on several fronts. From this crisis, many troubling questions arise related to European security, refugee protection, energy sustainability as well as the consequences of such a military conflict. Our new blog series provides a platform for debate and reflection on the effects of this military assault waged by one of the great nuclear powers and a permanent member of the UN Security Council amid Europe.
Before launching the assault, Vladimir Putin ranted that Russia had been robbed when the Soviet Union collapsed, that Lenin had created Ukraine, and that it had “never had a genuine tradition of statehood.” Few days after, Russia began an all-out attack on Ukraine, which lifted a decade-long fog of illusion.
In his recent public tirades since, President Putin has stated that “Russian people know how to distinguish scum and traitors from real patriots” already alluding to a self-purge. Putin has revealed himself as a Stalin-minded dictator of a regime shifting openly to totalitarianism. In the West, years of camouflage and ambivalent special relations have finally ceased to find wide public support.
War of Aggression
With every passing hour, Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine becomes more devastating. The original plan of a blitzkrieg with a decapitation strike on the capital and the replacement of the Ukrainian government worthy of Machiavelli’s classical textbook has proven unsuccessful. The resistance was too great and found its power in unity.
The country is now being overrun on several sides with heavy artillery and aerial attacks, though the Russian forces have yet to take control of the major strategic cities. Nonetheless, civilians are increasingly being targeted. Disturbing images are circulating in the media. Eyewitnesses on the run report on the terrible reality of war, that is immeasurable suffering. There is nothing worse and more painful to view than the images of a destroyed Mariupol, surpassing any painted picture of Hell in the Middle Ages.
European Response
“In just seven days, one million people have fled Ukraine, uprooted by this senseless war. I have worked in refugee emergencies for almost 40 years, and rarely have I seen an exodus as rapid as this one. From overflowing donation centers near the border to offers of transport and accommodation around the country, Poles offer a warm welcome to people forced to flee,” a UNHCR representative reports. A very different approach towards refugees to that observed at the Byelorussian border some months ago when asylum seekers mainly from the Middle East were aggressively pushed back.
Indeed, following the recommendation of the French presidency and the EU Commission, the Council of the EU activated the directive on “temporary protection in the event of mass influx” in early March, which had never been implemented before. In other words, the European Union would provide immediate protection to Ukrainians and third-country nationals with refugee or permanent residence status in Ukraine. This directive allows for full freedom of movement in the EU, access to work, school, training, social assistance, and health care. Switzerland followed suit and implemented its Protection Status S.
As Esther Pozo-Vera, the Head of EU’s Asylum Unit stated: “They can move and choose a country.” According to the directive implemented, which overrides the previous asylum agreement, Ukrainian refugees can register in one country and move later to another one. They benefit from a freedom of choice with no repatriations.
According to recent UNHCR data, by mid-March over 3.3 million people had fled Ukraine, of which more than 186’000 were third-country nationals (mainly from India and Morocco). Poland hosts the majority (1.8M), followed by Moldova (340’000), Hungary (264’000), and Romania (453’000). More than 300’000 people found protection in other European countries. These numbers are increasing daily.
Unexpected Consequences of the War
Russia’s war in Ukraine, presently at a stalemate, has had the opposite effects to what was intended: namely, a united nation of Ukraine, a united West under U.S. leadership, a rarely seen cohesion amid the European Union, and finally, the strengthening of NATO as a defense alliance. The war, which violates international law, has indeed strengthened the enemy that Putin had hoped to weaken and by which he felt threatened. Furthermore, Russia has isolated itself internationally like never before.
Currently, the U.S. is successfully leading a vast anti-Russian campaign articulated around three axes: a strong economic and military cohesion with Europe, particularly on sanctions against Russia and provision of weapons to Kyiv; support for Zelensky’s negotiation attempts through triangulations via Jerusalem and Ankara; and increasing dialogue with Beijing to find a common solution to silence the arms in Ukraine. President Putin’s military assault has turned into an opportunity for political and international awakening of the West.
Russian Offensive
On the military front, however, the second phase of the Russian offensive is looming, which promises to be more aggressive against Ukrainian cities. There is therefore a high risk that we may soon face attacks on Ukrainian civilians with unconventional weapons.
In addition, we should not lose sight of our domestic situation. Moscow has developed over the years a network of political and economic special relations in Europe and over the Atlantic, especially in the populist camp. The intention may be to activate them to create hotbeds of aggressive internal opposition to the NATO strategy, to disrupt from within the pro-Ukraine alliance that President Biden is trying to strengthen.
Already in 2015, the Russian intervention in Syria and the related refugee influx aimed, as a side effect, to destabilize Western democracies and their human rights agenda from within. Moreover, political figures such as Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, Matteo Salvini, Viktor Orbán, and Manuela Schwesig among many others of the right- and left-wing European establishments were drawn to Putin’s authoritarian attitude and the economic opportunities it presented.
Even Switzerland has not been spared from this Russophile trend, as some of the supporters of Putin are now accusing the country of having breached its neutrality through participation in the economic sanctions.
Shared Approach
The war against Ukraine shows us once again what can happen when power-hungry dictators are not countered in time: they end up dragging not only themselves but also their people into the abyss. With this brutal turn, many democratic-spirited Russians are experiencing a wave of increased oppression, leading to both external and internal emigration.
This unprecedented attack launched on Ukraine has a devastating potential for geopolitical destabilization. So far, the determination to react and protect refugees has shown to be more than a temporary convergence among Western countries. How long it will last will depend among other aspects on the resoluteness of our democracies and their citizens. Through our blog series, we will strive to provide you with different perspectives reflecting on this destructive war driving Europe to the brink.
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent the views or positions of the nccr – on the move.
Gianni D’Amato is professor at the University of Neuchâtel, director of the nccr – on the move, and director of the Swiss Forum for Migration and Population Studies (SFM).
References:
– https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/vladimir-putin-ukraine-never-had-a-tradition-of-genuine-statehood-1.4808469
– https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-warns-russia-against-pro-western-traitors-scum-2022-03-16/
– https://www.unhcr.org/news/press/2022/3/62206a824/news-comment-1-million-refugees-fled-ukraine-week.html
– https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_1469
– https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:32001L0055&from=LT
– https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/switzerland-triggers-unprecedented-special-status-for-ukrainian-refugees-/47437986?utm_campaign=teaser-in-querylist&utm_content=o&utm_source=swissinfoch&utm_medium=display
– https://www.migrationpolicy.org/events/ukraine-avenues-safety-meeting-immediate-needs
– https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine
