Tracking the Movements of Expatriates

Globalization and intense global competition for highly-educated workers (expatriates) are drawing attention to their international mobility in OECD countries. However, the collection of international migration data lags behind, resulting in inconsistent and confusing estimates of expatriates worldwide. Tracking the real-time movements of this population has become increasingly challenging, leading to the oversight of this category in migration discourse. This raises questions about the reliability and limitations of the estimates on expatriation in terms of their usefulness.

Migrant classifications impact individuals and their international career transitions by creating legal differences and resulting in differential treatment. One challenge in accurately estimating the number of expatriates stems from the definition of immigrants. Often, migration statistics rely on documentation based on an arrival permit granted to immigrants.

To complicate matters further, the types of permits vary across countries, but the two most common are work-related permits (including work-seeking permits) and resident permits. Depending on the procedures for managing migration statistics, temporary residence permits as well as the frequent movements between or within countries may be overlooked.

In some countries, population registers are maintained at the municipality level, but the minimum duration of intended stay and a permit required to be registered differs across countries. This duration can range from three months (e.g. Belgium, Japan) to a year (e.g., Sweden, Finland). Despite the potential for harmonizing the statistics across countries, progress in this area is slow due to political and technical reasons.

The second problem lies in that most OECD member countries lack explicit information about their expatriates. For example, some countries lack a comprehensive understanding of destination countries or the accurate number of emigrants. It is very rare for countries to have knowledge of the duration of their citizens’ stay abroad, as well as their level of qualification, occupation or branch of industry.

Furthermore, comparing data across countries becomes difficult due to the distinction between foreign-born individuals and those with foreign nationality, especially because rates of naturalization vary between groups and countries. With the increasing growth of immigrant populations and the rising prevalence of naturalization, comparing figures based on these different concepts becomes progressively more complex.

Counting Expatriates

There are four types of expatriate estimates that may yield varying numbers. The first type is based on statistics from embassies and consulates overseas, where administrative data capture nationals abroad through registrations for social benefits, pension payments, taxes, renewal of identity papers, procedures for voting or reporting of movements between home and host countries. However, it is important to note that registrations are not always compulsory or strictly enforced, leading to varying data coverage across countries.

Determining whether the data are an under-representation or over-representation is challenging, because people may not necessarily de-register when leaving their home country or the host country, and some individuals may register even for short stays abroad depending on country requirements and risk factors. This means that administrative procedures may not effectively keep track of expatriate movements.

Another method is through emigration surveys conducted in countries of origin. These surveys include questions aimed at identifying residents who are temporarily overseas or nationals living abroad. The approach involves asking an interviewed household member about the number of usual household members currently abroad. While this approach captures short stays abroad relatively accurately (including tourism and short-term work contracts), it often excludes many long-term emigrants, who have settled overseas with their entire households.

A third approach involves using statistics compiled from receiving countries, particularly the number of immigrants who were not born in the country, as an estimate for the number of expatriates. This approach, however, has limitations due to non-comparable data sources. It is often challenging to identify foreign-born citizens of their current country of residence (e.g. children born overseas to national parents).

Moreover, some people may not report their place of birth in census surveys. For example, 10% of the population in Slovakia, about 5.7% in Australia, and 4% in New Zealand have not specified a place of birth (Dumont & Lemaître, 2005). Some countries only record a limited number of countries of origin (e.g. South Korea records 17 foreign nationalities in its census).

It seems important to note that estimates of expatriates based on the country of origin should be considered a lower bound, and even when information on the size of expatriate communities is available, detailed characteristics of this population are rarely provided.

A fourth approach involves tracking the flow of remittances. According to the World Economic Forum, migrant remittances reached USD 794 billion in 2022. Remittances are calculated based on several factors including the earnings of workers residing abroad for less than 12 months, monetary transfers by workers sent home residing abroad for over a year, as well the net wealth of migrants moving from one country of employment to another.

Financial groups, such as Finaccord, have estimated the number of expatriates to be as high as 66.2 million in 2017, with a projected increase to 87.5 million in 2021. By contrast, in 2022 the IOM counted 281 million migrants worldwide, of which 169 million are classified as labor migrants (IOM, 2022). Unfortunately, this estimate does not provide clear figures for expatriates.

Future Suggestions

Recent studies undertaken by the OECD (2005: Dumont & Lemaître) have highlighted the deficiencies and the gaps in the available statistical data, making it difficult to grasp the complex international mobility patterns of highly skilled workers. Carrington and Detragiache (1998) attempted to estimate emigration rates by country of origin and level of qualification using American census data from the 1990s. This study was updated by Adams and Page (2003), but it is subject to a number of biases which limit its usefulness.

As a result, current statistics tend to show an incomplete image of overall migration and specifically the movements of highly skilled individuals. This applies not only to migration from developing to developed countries but also within the OECD area. Progress has been made by including questions on the individuals’ country of birth and nationality in all OECD countries. Receiving countries are thought to benefit from highly skilled human capital, but the available data are still insufficient to draw definitive conclusions about the impact of emigration on sending countries.

Dr. Anouk Jasmine Albien is a Marie Curie Fellow researching Skilled Migrant Adjustments to Career Transitions (SMACT : Grant Agreement number: 890967 — SMACT — H2020-MSCA-IF-2019/H2020-MSCA-IF-2019) and is an affiliated researcher with the NCCR on the move Research Centre.

Dr. Didier Ruedin is a senior lecturer at the Swiss Forum for Migration and Population Studies at the University of Neuchâtel and a project leader at the NCCR –  on the move.

References:

– Adams, R. H., & Page, J. (2003). International migration, remittances, and poverty in developing countries (Vol. 3179). World Bank Publications.
– Carrington, W.J., & Detragiache, E.  (1998).How Big is the Brain Drain? IMF Working Paper No. 98/102.
– Dumont, J. C., & Lemaître, G. (2005). Counting immigrants and expatriates in OECD countries: a new perspective.
– Finaccord.
– International Organisation for Migration (IOM) (2019). IOM Handbook on protection and assistance for migrants vulnerable to violence, exploitation and abuse. Geneva, Author.
– IOM (2022).World Migration Report 2022.
– OECD (2022). International Migration Outlook 2022. OECD Publishing.
– OECD (2006). International Migrant Remittances and their Role in Development.
– United Nations. (2011, September 3). Population facts. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. New York, NY: Author.
– World Economic Forum.