Swiss Net Emigration Reaches 2006 Levels
In 2023, it is anticipated that Switzerland’s net immigration within its foreign permanent resident population will most likely reach a new record level. This can be attributed to its dynamic labor market and the inclusion of refugees from Ukraine, the majority of whom will be recognized as part of the permanent resident population by the end of 2023. At the same time, many Swiss nationals have chosen to emigrate and leave the country, mitigating the potential impact of foreign immigration on the labor and housing markets.
Monthly data from the State Secretariat for Migration (SEM) shows a sharp increase in immigration to Switzerland in the last two years (see chart « Migration of the foreign permanent resident population »). Between August 2022 and July 2023 alone, almost 175,000 people immigrated to Switzerland in gross terms, with 125,000 coming from the EU/EFTA countries. The largest inflows came from neighboring Germany (around 25,600 persons), France (17,900) and Italy (18,900). Cumulatively, net immigration – gross immigration minus gross emigration – amounted to almost 92,000 persons in these twelve months.
Immigration Surge Due to a Dynamic Labor Market
The root cause of the surge in immigration to Switzerland is its very dynamic labor market. According to the employment statistics of the Federal Statistical Office, the number of people in employment in Switzerland increased by almost 150,000 within just one year. Given the low unemployment rate, such an increase in employment cannot be met by individuals already living in Switzerland. Swiss firms thus recruited workers abroad to fill their new positions.
Indeed, immigration has remained high in recent months despite fears of an economic slowdown. Between May and July, immigration exceeded its values from the previous year by a quarter although net immigration of the foreign population was already high in 2022, with a net increase of 78,194 foreigners year on year.
The consequence of these developments is that Switzerland is heading for a record-high net migration of the foreign resident population in 2023. Extrapolating the current number, net immigration of foreigners is likely to amount to between 85,000 and 100,000 persons in the current year, thus reaching levels last observed in 2013.
Ukrainian Refugees Only Part of the Resident Population After a Year
In addition, Switzerland’s official migration figures will be affected by a statistical artefact: Unless they have a B permit, refugees are only counted as part of the Swiss permanent resident population after one year of residence. Thus, the Ukrainian refugees who arrived in Switzerland before the end of 2022 will count towards the permanent resident population at the end of 2023. They will, statistically speaking, “immigrate” to Switzerland only at that point.
Statistically reported net migration into the foreign permanent resident population is thus likely to be between 135,000 and 150,000 persons in 2023. This is the highest net migration to Switzerland since at least 1948. In fact, there have only been two years in which net migration of foreigners exceeded 100,000 individuals since 1948: 1961 and 2008.
Hidden Demographic Group: Emigrating Swiss Citizens
However, these figures hide an important group: Swiss citizens. More Swiss citizens leave the country every year than return to it. In 2022, 31,262 Swiss citizens left the country while 21,828 returned. Hence, net emigration of Swiss citizens amounted to 9,434 individuals. Similarly high net emigration was last recorded in the mid-2000s. This phenomenon is also not new. Except for the exceptional year in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic substantially reduced migration across national borders, the net emigration of Swiss nationals exceeded 6,000 individuals in each year since 2016.
The reasons why Swiss citizens leave the country are diverse. Some leave the country to study or take up a job, some turn their backs on Switzerland with a Swiss passport in their luggage and return to their home country, and still, others return home or to a place in the warmer south after retirement. It is probably no coincidence that emigration is higher among the 55- to 69-year-olds than the 40- to 54-year-olds, and that Thailand figures among the top destinations for emigrants aged 60-69.
Why Net Emigration of the Swiss Matters?
It is not innocuous that commentators in the Swiss migration debate often focus on foreigners only and forget to include Swiss citizens when discussing net migration. In terms of the potential effects of immigration on, for instance, labor and housing markets, the use of public services, or Switzerland’s growth potential, it matters little what nationality the migrating person is. What is central is the change in the number of people living in Switzerland.
The net outflow of Swiss citizens reduces the potential immigration pressure on the labor and housing market. In fact, the net emigration of Swiss citizens may indeed be a partial cause of the immigration of foreigners, as the foreigners may in part replace the out-migrating Swiss citizens on the labor market. In addition, seven out of the top ten destinations of Swiss emigrants in 2022 were EU countries, including France, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Portugal. The high net emigration to EU countries suggests that a sizeable number of Swiss nationals seize the opportunities for the free movement of persons within the EU each year.
Michael Siegenthaler holds a PhD from ETH and is currently a labor market specialist and the head of the research division Swiss labor market at KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich. He is a Project Leader of the nccr – on the move’s project on Monitoring Ethnic and Immigrant Discrimination in Hiring Decisions in Times of Crisis. His research interests are labor economics, migration, and empirical macroeconomics. A recurrent topic is the factors and policies that shape firms’ demand for workers.
