Milivinti, Alice

How many Migrants does the Swiss Pension System Need?
2018

The positive role exerted by migrants to decelerate the ageing population process of developed countries has been stressed by many studies. However, the actual number of migrants needed to sustain the pension systems and its effectiveness in the long-run often remains tacit. While assuming the increment of the retired population to be the only shock, this study undertakes an accounting exercise of the Swiss public pension scheme. A ceteris-paribus analysis articulates the alternative compensatory actions, such as the increase in public expenditure, workforce through migration, retirement age, GDP and productivity, required to face the aggravating situation of the first pillar of the Swiss pension system (AHV/AVS) between 2014 and 2045. By taking advantage of the federal structure of Switzerland, the repercussions of specific compensatory actions adopted at the national level are evaluated for each canton. In general, even though a policy mix is the most desirable, immigration could by no means be a self-sufficient solution. In fact, if immigration would be the only compensatory action to maintain the AHV/AVS at its 2014 level, the Swiss foreign population should increase, by 2045, of an extra 110% after having controlled for evolution of migration flows and stocks.