International Migration and Population Growth in Swiss Municipalities
International migrations have become the major driver of population growth and change in Western European societies, and Switzerland is no exception. A new Migration-Mobility Indicator evaluates population growth (and its components) during the period 2011-2017 for Swiss municipalities with over 10,000 inhabitants in 2017 (157 municipalities). Population living in these municipalities (around 4 million people) represents almost half (47%) of the total population (8.5 million people) living in Switzerland.
Demographic Context
In societies characterized by an aging population and low fertility, international migration has become the major force driving population growth and change (Coleman 2006), and has stirred a great number of heated public debates and policy interventions. Between 2011 and 2017, the population living in Switzerland grew from 7,954,662 to 8,419,550 people, a relative growth of 6% that places it at the top of the European ranking, together with Sweden and Norway, and only barely below Luxembourg and Malta (Eurosat 2018). During this period, the percentage of foreign population living in the country increased from 24% in 2011 to 28% six years later.
Population growth is the outcome of natural balance (births versus deaths) plus the migratory balance (immigrations versus emigrations). In this case, our main aim is to disentangle and quantify the contribution of international migration to population growth between 2011 and 2017 for each of the Swiss municipalities, which had over 10,000 inhabitants in 2017. The computation of this indicator additionally entailed the interesting (from a programming point of view) task of reconstructing Swiss municipalities’ development over time. In this empirical exercise, we divide the migratory balance into its two components: international migration balance (international immigrations – international emigrations) and internal migration balance (internal migrations – internal emigrations). Population growth in each municipality will therefore be the sum of the natural, international and internal migration balances.
The Contribution of International Migration to Population Growth in Swiss Municipalities
This new NCCR indicator, computed by myself under the supervision of Prof. Philippe Wanner and visualized by Andreas Perret – Data Manager of the nccr – on the move, allows us to gain a number of significant insights on the contribution of international migration to population growth in the municipalities studied. This indicator reveals that:
– The importance of international migration to population growth is unquestionable. That is, the international migration balance represents two-thirds (63%) of the total absolute number of movements of entry or exit (including births and deaths) into these 157 municipalities.
– Thanks to the contribution of international migration, population losses in major Swiss municipalities were avoided. The population grew by almost 0.25 million people (240,437 individuals) between 2011 and 2017 in these 157 municipalities. Alternatively, if we want to express it as a percentage (relative growth), we can say that the population living in those 157 municipalities in 2017 (4,049,611 people) was 6.3% bigger than it was in 2011 (3,809,174 people). However, without the positive contribution of the international migration balance (258,312 people), these communes would have lost 17,875 individuals which, in relative terms, would mean that the population would be 0.47% smaller in 2017 than it was in 2011. Finally, if we compute the contribution of the international migration balance over the actual population growth observed between 2011 and 2017, we find than 8 out of 10 extra people in 2017 are due to an international migration arrival.
If we take the population size of the municipality into account, this indicator shows that:
– Population growth between 2011 and 2017 would have been negative in all Swiss municipalities with over 35,000 inhabitants without the positive contribution of international migration (with the minor exceptions of Thun (0.2%), Bellinzona (1.5%) and Zürich (0.3%), and the particular case of Köniz (3.3%).
– Without the contribution of international migration, Montreux would even have reported a negative population growth of 15% between 2011 and 2017, followed by Genève (-9%), Neuchâtel (-8.4%) and Lugano (-6.6%).
Final Comment
Although the previous statements reflect the contribution of international migration to population growth between 2011 and 2017, the visualization developed by Andreas Perret allows users to define different periods of analysis, as well as to select municipalities according to their population size. Additionally, users can find and explore the evolution of population growth year by year for a selected period.
Juan Galeano is a post-doctoral researcher at the Institut de Démographie et Socioéconomie, Université de Genève, associated to the nccr – on the move in the project on “Explaining and interpreting migration flows and stocks” and focuses on demography.
References:
– Coleman, D. (2006). Immigration and ethnic change in low-fertility countries: A third demographic transition. Population and Development Review 32, 401–446.
– EUROSTAT (2018). Population on January 1 [TPS00001].
