Switzerland’s 10 Million Population Milestone: Exploring the Consequences

Over the past few months, Switzerland’s changing population trends have received increasing media coverage and gained the interest of certain political circles. While this is not new, the increase in population in Switzerland regularly raises questions as to whether this trend can be changed. And at what cost? Or would it not be wiser to allow these trends to continue naturally? To answer these questions, we draw on a number of demographic principles.

For centuries, Philosophers have been concerned about the size of nations‘ populations. As far back as 1577, the economist Jean Bodin wrote, „We must never fear that there will be too many subjects, too many citizens, since there is no wealth or strength except in men.“ In Switzerland too, the size of the population has been the subject of regular debate, but not always to limit growth. In 1985, during a period of low fertility, experts warned of Switzerland moving towards the verge of extinction (Blanc et al., 1985). Fast forward to 2014, when the popular initiative „stop overpopulation“ was rejected by the people.

Looking ahead, against a backdrop of environmental, security and social crises, the dimension of population is set to gain increasing interest. This is further complicated by the frequent conflation of demographic growth with international migration, despite its dependence on birth and mortality rates, as well as the age structure of the population, which encourages certain circles to limit this development.

In this context, gaining insight into key aspects of population statistics proves to be valuable. We will begin by exploring demographic inertia, which often renders short- and medium-term trend reversals challenging. Next, we will discuss the factors behind population growth. Finally, we will assess the relevance of policies aimed at reducing population size.

Demographic Inertia

The Swiss Federal Statistical Office projects that Switzerland will have 8,815,400 permanent residents (excluding asylum seekers and short-term migrants) by the end of 2022. Based on current migration flows and natural demographic trends, the 9 million mark will be reached in 2024 or 2025. Looking even further ahead, achieving a population of 10 million appears to be on the horizon, with the most recent forecasts suggesting this milestone could be attained by the end of the 2030s, provided that migratory flows continue at the current rate.

In 2022, the surplus of births over deaths led to a positive effect, contributing to what is commonly referred to as „natural“ population growth. Although the years 2020 to 2022 saw a lower natural contribution compared to previous years—a result of a combination of increased mortality due to COVID-19 and rather low fertility—it continues to fuel growth. This phenomenon may be explained by the demographic composition, characterized by a substantial population of young adults of childbearing age (2.3 million as of the end of 2022, surpassing the number of pensioners in Switzerland). This means that, even in the absence of migration, growth will continue for several years. Just as a car needs time to decelerate, Swiss demographics cannot stop growing immediately and will continue to grow for several years, regardless of migration trends.

Growth Factors

Beyond the immediate components of demographic change, such as births, deaths, and migration, it is crucial to recognize demographic shifts are a response to broader societal trends. In Switzerland, several factors shape this dynamic. On one hand, an age structure that favors a higher birth rate is at play, while on the other hand, the retirement of the baby boomers creates new job opportunities in an economic context that sees an increased demand for labor, particularly from migratory flows. It is worth noting that asylum flows have a limited impact on demographic trends.

Population trends are therefore linked to societal and economic trends. To paraphrase Loriaux (1995), who spoke of changing demographic structures, they represent an outcome of a „process of societal change to which our societies must and can adapt in order to maximize the advantages and limit the disadvantages.“ If Switzerland were to face a different socioeconomic reality—such as institutional or economic crises—its demographic landscape would be very different.  Indeed, the countries of Eastern Europe provide some examples of societies in decline as a result of recurring socioeconomic challenges.

Why Focusing on Curbing Population Trends May Not Prove to be Viable?

Today, it is important to recognize that population growth is, to some extent, inevitable; at best, it can be curbed. According to our updated demographic projections (Wanner, 2014), attempting to stabilize the population at the 2023 level through 2030 would require a net emigration of 109,000 people, meaning 109,000 more departures than international arrivals (demographic projection that takes into account expected changes in mortality and fertility). This would inevitably lead to unprecedented economic weakening.

Such a scenario would likely result in an unprecedented economic vulnerability. In this context, emigration would also have ripple effects on the birth rate, leading to a decline in the number of children born and an accelerated aging of the population. This could be seen as a dependency ratio three points higher than expected, equal to three more elderly people for every 100 working-age people. Consequently, this scenario would strain pension insurance systems, with a shrinking workforce (by 6% compared to the end of 2022), and a growing number of pensioners (a 22% increase).

Indeed, such a scenario would undeniably come at a high cost, as it would involve restrictive policies, tighter border controls, the likelihood of illegal immigration, and shortages in sectors heavily reliant on a foreign workforce, including healthcare, construction and information technology. Moreover, numerous examples in Asia and Africa show that the cost of coercive demographic policies — whether aimed at reducing or increasing the population — is systematically higher than the benefits.

But Accompanying Them Might Be

Of course, demographic change requires responses and adjustments. Switzerland, thanks to its favorable economic situation, has the means to finance measures aimed at mitigating the less favorable consequences of gradual and expected changes –in both the number and structure of the population. Prioritizing the strategic development of infrastructure, including housing and transportation is vital. Equally important is the emphasis on building insulation to ensure that population growth is not accompanied by excessive CO2 emissions. Investment in environmental protection and social cohesion policies are just some of the many areas where action is needed to keep pace with demographic trends. This is where the political debate should focus.

Because Everything Comes to an End

In the long term, European societies are inevitably all heading towards a phase of population decline. Some European countries, such as Italy, are already in decline. Our country is unlikely to escape a long-term downward trend in the two decades to come, as the gradual passing of the large generations takes its course. The ten million mark may serve as the maximum threshold reached by the population of Switzerland, and the reflections on growth will then give way to the return of the questions about decline already expressed by Blanc et al. (1985). Perhaps, rather than fixating on a demographic trend that will naturally run its course, it would be more useful to redirect our focus toward addressing Switzerland’s pressing social, environmental and economic challenges.

Philippe Wanner is a Professor of Demography at the University of Geneva and the Deputy Director and Project Leader of the nccr – on the move. He is currently leading the project focusing on The Longitudinal Impact of Crises on Economic, Social, and Mobility-Related Outcomes: The Role of Gender, Skills, and Migration Status.

References:

-Blanc, Olivier et al (1985). Will the Swiss disappear? The population of Switzerland: problems, prospects, policies. Commission „Politiques de la population“, Société suisse de statistique et d’économie politique. Bern and Stuttgart, Éditions Paul Haupt, 1985, 245 + x p.
-Loriaux, Michel (1995). Du vieillissement démographique à l’intégration des âges : la révolution de la géritude. Population 5-6, 1611-1625.
-Wanner, Philippe (2014). Une Suisse à dix millions d’habitants – Enjeux et débats. Collection Le Savoir Suisse. Lausanne: EPFL Press